Decisiones estratégicas bajo incertidumbre: Modelo para la evaluación de iniciativas empresariales
Palabras clave:
Decisiones estratégicas, analítica de datos, jerárquico difuso, incertidumbre estratégica, emprendimiento
Resumen
Las decisiones estratégicas determinan la viabilidad de cualquier emprendimiento; comprender los factores que las guían permite asignar recursos con mayor impacto. Frente a la incertidumbre, las pequeñas y medianas empresas del mundo necesitan herramientas tal como es el proceso analítico jerárquico difuso, que traduzcan el juicio experto en orientaciones prácticas. El objetivo de esta investigación fue determinar un modelo de decisiones estratégicas bajo incertidumbre, que jerarquiza los elementos que impulsan el éxito de iniciativas empresariales en contextos volátiles. Tras una revisión sistemática de la literatura y la valoración difusa de académicos y directivos de Ecuador y España, el análisis revela que el talento humano, el liderazgo, las competencias y cohesión del equipo, ejercen influencia decisiva, seguido por la comprensión del mercado y la solidez financiera. El entorno regulatorio aporta valor moderado cuando los recursos son limitados, lo que sugiere privilegiar la adaptación del equipo y la propuesta de valor sobre inversiones de innovación tecnológica radicales. Se concluye que es necesario invertir en desarrollo de capacidades, sistemas de inteligencia de mercado y esquemas flexibles de financiamiento; mientras que las políticas públicas deben reforzar la formación gerencial y el acceso a capital para mejorar la supervivencia empresarial.
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Gumel, B. I., y Bardai, B. B. (2023). A review of critical success factors influencing the success of SMEs. SEISENSE Business Review, (1), 37-61.
Harini, S., Pranitasari, D., Said, M., y Endri, E. (2023). Determinants of SME performance: Evidence from Indonesia. Problems and Perspectives in Management, (1), 471-481.
Hausmann, R., y Rodrik, D. (2023). Economic development as self-discovery. Journal of Development Economics, 72(2), 603-633. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3878(03)00124-x
Hejazi, S. R., Seyyedamiri, N., Bidhandi, M. S., y Rasoulian, P. (2024). Identifying factors affecting startups survival: A systematic literature review. Journal of Organisational Studies and Innovation, 11(2), 31-64. https://doi.org/10.51659/josi.23.196
Herrera-Enríquez, G., Casanova-Villalba, C., Herrera-Sánchez, M., Navarrete-Zambrano, C., y Ruiz-López, S. (2021). Estructura del sistema de información para el análisis multidimensional de la resiliencia socioecológica a través de Fuzzy AHP. RISTI, Revista Ibérica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informação, (E-39), 77-90. http://www.risti.xyz/issues/ristie39.pdf
Ipinnaiye, O., Dineen, D., y Lenihan, H. (2016). Drivers of SME performance: A holistic and multivariate approach. Small Business Economics, (4), 883-911.
Koçyiğit, N., Yıldız, E., y Akyazı, T. E. (2024). Entrepreneurial competencies in the success of enterprises: A bibliometric analysis of the publications in the field. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, (2), 315-328.
Lafuente, E., Leiva, J. C., Moreno-Gómez, J., y Szerb, L. (2019). A non-parametric analysis of competitiveness efficiency: The relevance of firm size and the configuration of competitive pillars. BRQ Business Research Quarterly https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brq.2019.02.002
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Li, X., Zhang, M., Li, W., y Chen, J. (2025). Looking for new possibilities in emerging industries: The impact of strategic sensing capability on high-tech startups’ product innovation. Journal Of Business Research, 189, 115183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2025.115183
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Mariyudi, M. (2019). Success factors of SMEs: The case of Indonesia. International Journal of Business Innovation and Research (IJBIR), 19(2), 204-231. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijbir.2019.10014223
Mayer, E. L., Blanco, F. J., Alonso, M. Á., y Charles, J. A. (2020). Emprendimiento y crecimiento económico: El sistema mexicano de incubadoras de negocios. Revista de Ciencias Sociales (Ve), XXVI(1), 107-127. https://doi.org/10.31876/rcs.v26i1.31314
McGrath, H., O’Toole, T., y Canning, L. (2024). Strategizing in business networks: The ambivalent entrepreneur. Industrial Marketing Management, 123, 76-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2024.09.008
Meleddu, M., y Pulina, M. (2016). Evaluation of individuals’ intention to pay a premium price for ecotourism: An exploratory study. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 65, 67-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2016.08.006
Mohammadian, H. D., Langari, Z. G., Kamalian, A. R., Yaghoubi, N. M., y Aramesh, H. (2023). Promoting sustainable global innovative smart governance through the 5th wave theory, via Fuzzy AHP for future SMEs (SME 5.0/hybrid SMEs). AIMS Geosciences, 9(1), 123-152. https://doi.org/10.3934/geosci.2023008
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Nan, L., y Wen, X. (2022). Financial leverage, information quality, and efficiency. Contemporary Accounting Research, 40(2), 1082-1106. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12845
Norkio, A. (2023). Intangible capital and financial leverage in SMEs. Managerial Finance, 50(2), 434-450. https://doi.org/10.1108/mf-10-2022-0488
Okoli, I. E. N., Nnabuife, E. K., y Allison, P. (2020). Critical success factors for SMEs performance: Empirical evidence. International Journal of Advanced Academic Research, 6(12), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.46654/ij.24889849.s6122
OECD/CAF/SELA (2024). SME Policy Index: Latin America and the Caribbean 2024. Towards an inclusive, resilient, and sustainable recovery. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/ba028c1d-en
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development – OECD (2019). OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Outlook 2019. OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/34907e9c-en
Organización Internacional del Trabajo - OIT (2021). Factores internos y externos para el éxito de las PYME: Lo que las organizaciones empresariales deben saber para promover empresas más competitivas. OIT. https://www.ilo.org/es/publications/factores-internos-y-externos-para-el-exito-de-las-pymes-lo-que-las
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Publicado
2025-08-26
Cómo citar
González-Pinos, S., Herrera-Enríquez, G., Castillo-Montesdeoca, E., & Martínez-Navalón, J. G. (2025). Decisiones estratégicas bajo incertidumbre: Modelo para la evaluación de iniciativas empresariales. Revista De Ciencias Sociales, 31(3), 299-312. https://doi.org/10.31876/rcs.v31i3.44285
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